What Is the Probability That Home Values Will Fall?

by Debe on September 14, 2019

in Charlotte Home Buyers,Charlotte Home Sellers,Charlotte Housing Market,Charlotte NC Economic News

What Is the Probability That Home Values Will Fall?


With the current uncertainty about the economy triggered by a flood of media ‘hype’ on the subject, there are some who are waiting to purchase their first home or even move-up to their dream house. The fear? That home prices will fall over the next few years or the dreaded ‘R’ word is upon us. Once again, here is more data from the experts who disagree vehemently with this perspective.

The following table shows the predicted level of appreciation from six major housing sources:

Projected home price percentage of appreciation going forward


As you probably expected, every source is confident that home prices will continue to appreciate. Granted, all sources predict slightly lower levels than we have seen over the last several years but, not one source is calling for residential real estate values to depreciate.

Even in ARCH Mortgage Insurance Company’s most recent Housing and Mortgage Market Review, the ARCH Risk Index is showing low probability in most states, 2 years from now. Not one state in the nation had a moderate probability of home prices lowering. In fact, 34 of the 50 states had a minimal probability as seen in the graphic below.

home price probability

*The typically conservative ARCH Risk Index estimates the probability of home prices being lower in two years.


The Bottom Line in Charlotte Real Estate


Those waiting for prices to fall before purchasing a home should realize that the probability of that happening anytime soon is very low. With mortgage rates already at near historic lows, now may be the time to act.


READ MORE about our current state of the real estate market in Charlotte

Keep Calm – The Sky is Not Falling! This Is NOT 2008
Keep Calm and Don’t Be a Chicken Little
Home Sales Expected to Continue Increasing In 2020

**Thanks to KCM for providing the data and graphics contained within.


Debe Maxwell | The Maxwell House Group | RE/MAX Executive | CharlotteBroker@icloud.com | What Is the Probability That Home Values Will Fall?

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The data relating to Charlotte NC Real Estate on this Web site derive from the Carolina Multiple Listing Services IDX datashare program. © 2022 Carolina Multiple Listing Services, Inc. All information provided is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed and should be independently verified.

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